Human existence is based upon risk. This text charts the adventures of a group of thinkers who embarked on a voyage of intellectual discovery, transforming primeval superstition into the powerful tools of risk control employed today.One of the foremost financial writers of his generation, Peter Bernstein has the unique ability to synthesize intellectual history and economics with the theory and practice of investment management With the stock market breaking records almost daily, leaving longtime market analysts shaking their heads and revising their forecasts, a study of the concept of risk seems quite timely. Peter Bernstein has written a comprehensive history of man's efforts to understand risk and probability, beginning with early gamblers in ancient Greece, continuing through the 17th-century French mathematicians Pascal and Fermat and up to modern chaos theory. Along the way he dem
Indholdet er en årlig forecast-udgivelse fra Monocle, der samler redaktionens bud på de vigtigste globale strømninger for 2018. Artiklerne dækker blandt andet internationale affærer som Catalonien, forretning og økonomi, byliv, transport, hospitality, diplomati, kultur og medietrends, design og fashion samt mad og gastronomi med fokus på yoshoku, den japanske tilgang til western food. Bogen fungerer som en kombination af magasin og årbog, hvor reportage, interviews, analyser og grafisk formidling bruges til at give læseren et bredt overblik over verden i det kommende år. Henvender sig til læsere med interesse for globalisering, politik, økonomi, design, kultur, rejser og urbane livsstile. Type: Magasin Magasinagtig årbog fra redaktionen bag Monocle Magazine med titlen "The Forecast 2018 – Issue 07". Udgivelsen præsenterer analyser og features om globale trends og tendenser for året 2018
Known from its last editions as the "Bible of Forecasting", the third edition of this authoritative text has adopted a new approach-one that is as new as the latest trends in the field: "Explaining the past is not adequate for predicting the future". In other words, accurate forecasting requires more than just the fitting of models to historical data. Inside, readers will find the latest techniques used by managers in business today, discover the importance of forecasting and learn how it's accomplished. And readers will develop the necessary skills to meet the increased demand for thoughtful and realistic forecasts. Titel: Forecasting : methods and applications Forfattere: Spyros Makridakis,Steven C. Wheelwright,Rob J. Hyndman Udgave: 3rd Edition Genre: Faglitteratur Sammendrag: Since accurate forecasting requires more than just inserting historical data into a model, Forecasting: Metho
Ideal for both novices and seasoned professionals, this book provides balanced coverage of the theory, applications, and computations of operations research techniques -- with a focus on deterministic models, probabilistic models, and nonlinear models. Exceptionally up-to-date, it features intensive use of modern computational tools, including the all-new and extremely-powerful Windows-based TORA "RM", Excel "RM" spreadsheets, Excel Solver "RM", LINGO "RM" and AMPL "RM". It uses carefully designed numerical examples to explain each mathematical concept (rather than using complex mathematical proofs). An accompanying CD-ROM includes the TORA "RM" Optimization system, the ready-to-use Excel "RM" templates, files of all the examples in the book for direct use with TORA "RM", Excel "RM", LINGO "RM", and AMPL "RM". Introduction To Linear Programming. The Simplex Method. Duality and Sensitivit
Before there were Instagram likes, Twitter hashtags, or TikTok trends, there were bloggers who seemed to have the passion and authenticity that traditional media lacked. The Influencer Industry tells the story of how early digital creators scrambling for work amid the Great Recession gave rise to the multibillion-dollar industry that has fundamentally reshaped culture, the flow of information, and the way we relate to ourselves and each other. Drawing on dozens of in-depth interviews with leading social media influencers, brand executives, marketers, talent managers, trend forecasters, and others, Emily Hund shows how early industry participants focused on creating and monetizing digital personal brands as a means of exerting control over their professional destinies in a time of acute economic uncertainty. Over time, their activities coalesced into an industry whose impact has reached f
Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future -- Yet from the global financial crisis to 9/11 to the Fukushima disaster, we often fail to foresee hugely significant events -- In "The Signal and the Noise", the "New York Times'" political forecaster and statistics guru Nate Silver explores the art of prediction, revealing how we can all build a better crystal ball -- In his quest to distinguish the true signal from a universe of noisy data, Silver visits hundreds of expert forecasters, in fields ranging from the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to terrorism -- What lies behind their success? -- And why do so many predictions still fail? -- By analysing the rare prescient forecasts, and applying a more quantitative lens to everyday life, Silver distils the essenti
Årsmagasin fra Monocle med fokus på året 2020. Indeholder artikler, interviews og analyser om globale tendenser inden for byudvikling, entreprenørskab, kultur, uddannelse, politik og livsstil. Magasinet præsenterer idéer til, hvordan man kan gøre byer bedre at bo i, hvordan nye virksomheder og unge entreprenører former økonomien, samt hvordan kultur og uddannelse udvikler sig i en digital tidsalder. Hovedrammen er optimistisk og handler om grunde til at være positiv omkring fremtiden i 2020. Type: Magasin Magasin fra Monocle med titlen "The Forecast 2020". Et engelsksproget årsmagasin, issue 10, der ser frem mod året 2020 med analyser, artikler og temaer om global udvikling. Forsiden fremhæver sektioner som Observations, Urbanism, Entrepreneurs, Culture og Education. Hovedtemaet for dette nummer er "LET'S ROLL... Reasons to be cheerful... 2020", hvor magasinet peger på muligheder, positi
In this internationally acclaimed book, Hubert Lamb explores what we know about climate, how the past record of climate can be reconstructed, the causes of climatic variation, and its impact on human affairs now and in the historical and prehistorical past.This second edition incorporates important new material on recent advances in weather forecasting, global warming, the ozone layer, pollution and population growth. Providing a valuable introduction to the problems and results of the most recent research activity, this book extends our understanding of the interactions between climate and history and discusses implications for future climatic fluctuations and forecasting. Titel: Climate, history and the modern world Udgave: 2nd edition Genre: natur_videnskab_teknologi Sammendrag: "Climate History and the Modern World" undersøger samspillet mellem klima og menneskelig historie. H. H. La
