The signal and the noise : why most predictions fail, but some don't af Nate Silver (1978-) (Bog)

Forfatter: Nate Silver (1978-)
Sprog: Engelsk
Antal sider: 534
Forlag: Penguin Press
Udgivelsesår: 2012
Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future -- Yet from the global financial crisis to 9/11 to the Fukushima disaster, we often fail to foresee hugely significant events -- In "The Signal and the Noise", the "New York Times'" political forecaster and statistics guru Nate Silver explores the art of prediction, revealing how we can all build a better crystal ball -- In his quest to distinguish the true signal from a universe of noisy data, Silver visits hundreds of expert forecasters, in fields ranging from the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to terrorism -- What lies behind their success? -- And why do so many predictions still fail? -- By analysing the rare prescient forecasts, and applying a more quantitative lens to everyday life, Silver distils the essential lessons of prediction -- We live in an increasingly data-driven world, but it is harder than ever to detect the true patterns amid the noise of information -- In this dazzling insider's tour of the world of forecasting, Silver reveals how we can all develop better foresight in our everyday lives
Titel: The signal and the noise : why most predictions fail, but some don't
Udgave: 1. udgave

Sammendrag: Bogen forklarer, hvorfor mange eksperters forudsigelser slår fejl, og hvordan man kan blive bedre til at forudsige alt fra økonomi og politik til vejr, sport og katastrofer. Nate Silver viser, hvordan man adskiller relevante signaler fra tilfældig støj i data, og hvordan bayesiansk sandsynlighedstænkning, usikkerhed og løbende opdatering af modeller giver mere pålidelige prognoser. Gennem cases om finanskrisen, jordskælv, baseball-statistik, poker, klima og terrorisme argumenterer han for, at gode forudsigelser kræver både kvantitative metoder og ydmyghed over for modellernes begrænsninger. Bogen giver læseren værktøjer til mere kritisk at vurdere tal, grafer og eksperters udsagn i medier og politik og til selv at tænke mere probabilistisk i hverdagsbeslutninger.
Type: Hardcover